Are we going to see a busy fall market? There are two components of a strong fall season, which are listings and sales. Promisingly, there was a burst of new listings in late August (up 3.3%), which sets us up for even more in September and plenty of fresh new choices for consumers to stir up interest. In terms of sales, it’s hard to predict, but general economic conditions aren’t looking good. We might soon be hearing more about stagflation, the latest job data from August showed a loss of 42,000 jobs, and 5-year fixed mortgage rates are already on the rise.

Another factor at play is consumer sentiment. CREA tracks that in a few ways, but one important question they ask Canadians is about their willingness to make major purchases. According to their data, we’re seeing a trend towards more people saying it’s a good time, and fewer people saying it’s a bad time. An overall positive market indicator when it comes to buying a home.

In summary, here are the three main messages from CREA today:

1. New listings are starting strong, the first half of a busy fall market.
2. Persistently high fuel prices are bound to trickle through the economy and cause inflation.
3. We should expect scaled back fall market activity despite the economic uncertainty ahead, thanks to stable home prices and balanced housing market conditions.

It’s hard to say what’s coming down the pipeline for the fall housing market as there are indicators in both positive and negative directions. It’s probably best to take CREA’s advice from today’s report: “This is one of those you better look out the windshield more than the rearview moments”.

The bottom line? Expect a moderated fall market.

Thanks for reading today. You may have noticed the report looks a bit different thanks to a guest writer, so feel free to send feedback about this version. Dr. Sherry Cooper will be back with her regular CREA report next month.