Canadian Inflation Surged to 2.6% in February, Much Stronger Than Expected The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.6% year-over-year (y/y) in February, following an increase of 1.9% in January. With the federal tax break ending on February 15, the GST and HST were reapplied to eligible products. This put upward pressure on consumer prices for those items, as taxes paid by consumers […]

Global Tariff Uncertainty Sidelined Buyers Canadian existing home sales plunged last month as tariff concerns moth-balled home buying intentions. According to data released Monday by the Canadian Real Estate Association, transactions fell 9.8% from January. Activity was at its lowest level since November 2023. Benchmark home prices declined 0.8%, and new listings plunged, more than […]

Weak Canadian Job Creation Opens The Way For BoC Easing Next Week Today’s Labour Force Survey for February was weaker than expected, showing de minimis job growth last month. Employment held steady in February (+1,100; +0.0%), following three consecutive monthly increases totalling 211,000 (+1.0%) in November, December and January. On a year-over-year basis, employment was up by 387,000 (+1.9%) […]

Trump Did It–Trade War Starts Today Trump has imposed tariffs of 25% on goods coming from Mexico and Canada, 10% on Canadian energy, and an additional  10% on goods from China. He justified these actions by claiming they would force Mexico and Canada to address issues related to undocumented migration and drug trafficking. However, while […]

Global Tariff Uncertainty Is Not Good For the Canadian Housing Market Canadian MLS® Systems posted a double-digit jump in new supply in January 2025 when compared to December 2024. At the same time, sales activity fell off at the end of the month, likely reflecting uncertainty over the potential for a trade war with the […]

Canadian Inflation Edged Upward to 1.9% Y/Y in January In January, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.9% year over year (y/y), up from 1.8% in December. This rise was primarily due to an uptick in energy prices. Excluding gasoline, the CPI increased by 1.7% in January, down from 1.8% in December. Higher energy […]

Stronger-Than-Expected Jobs Report in January Today’s Labour Force Survey for January surprised on the high side as businesses expanded employment despite threats of a tariff war with the US. According to Statistics Canada, employment increased by 76,000 last month, bringing the jobless rate down to 6.6%. Economists in a Bloomberg survey expected a smaller rise […]

Noone Benefits From Tariffs Despite having negotiated the current trade agreement among the U.S., Mexico, and Canada during his first administration, Donald Trump broke the terms of that treaty on Saturday. He triggered a global stock market selloff after fulfilling his threat to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. These levies are set to […]

Bank of Canada Cuts Policy Rate By 25 BPs The Bank of Canada (BoC) reduced the overnight rate by 25 basis points this morning, bringing the policy rate down to 3.0%. The market had anticipated a nearly 98% chance of this 25 basis point reduction, and consensus aligned with this expectation. The Federal Reserve is […]