Labour Market Weakness Continued in May, Raising the Prospects of a Rate Cut at The Next BoC Meeting Today’s Labour Force Survey for March was weaker than expected. Employment decreased by 33,000 (-0.2%) in March, the first decrease since January 2022. The decline in March followed little change in February and three consecutive months of growth in November, December […]

Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady for the Second Consecutive Meeting–But Two More Rate Cuts Are Likely This Year As expected, the Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.75% at today’s meeting, the second consecutive rate hold since the Bank cut overnight rates seven times in the past year. The governing […]

Q1 GDP Growth Was Bolstered by Tariff Reaction As Residential Construction and Resale Activity Weakened Further Statistics Canada released Q1 GDP data showing a stronger-than-expected 2.2% seasonally adjusted annual rate, a tick above the pace of the quarter before. Exports drove growth as companies in the United States rushed to stockpile Canadian products before U.S. […]

Today’s Inflation Report Poses a Conundrum for the Bank of Canada The headline inflation report for April showed a marked slowdown in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which rose a mere 1.7% year over year (y/y), down sharply from the 2.3% rise in March. The slowdown in April was driven by lower energy prices, which fell 12.7% […]

Global Tariff Uncertainty Sidelines Buyers Canadian existing home sales were unchanged last month as tariff concerns again mothballed home-buying intentions, mainly in the GTA and GVA where sales have declined for months. Consumer confidence has fallen to rock-bottom levels as many fear the prospect of job losses and higher prices. The number of sales recorded […]

Manufacturing Employment Plunged as Tariffs Weakened the Economy Today’s Labour Force Survey for April showed a marked adverse impact of tariffs on the Canadian economy. Early evidence suggests that the slowing economy will be the primary fallout of tariffs, with upward pressure on prices a secondary impact. The central bank’s actions will mitigate inflation while […]

Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady In The Face Of Tariff Uncertainty–More Rate Cuts Coming The Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.75% at today’s meeting, as expected by half of the market, to mark the first hold following 225 basis points of cuts in seven consecutive decisions. The governing council noted […]

Global Tariff Uncertainty Sidelines Buyers Canadian existing home sales plunged last month as tariff concerns again mothballed home-buying intentions. Consumer confidence has fallen to rock-bottom levels as many fear the prospect of job losses and higher prices. According to data released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association, existing home sales declined by 4.8% month-over-month. […]

Weaker Than Expected Inflation May Not Be Enough to Trigger Another Bank of Canada Rate Cut Tomorrow Canadian consumer prices rose 0.3% in March (or remained flat when seasonally adjusted), which was lower than expected, reducing the annual inflation rate by 0.3 percentage points to 2.3%. This decrease in headline inflation followed the complete removal […]

Weak Canadian Job Creation Is The First Fallout From The Trade War Today’s Labour Force Survey for March was weaker than expected. Employment decreased by 33,000 (-0.2%) in March, the first decrease since January 2022. The decline in March followed little change in February and three consecutive months of growth in November, December and January, totalling 211,000 (+1.0%). The employment rate—the […]