| Bottom Line
In other news, the US employment report was also released this morning, showing the strongest two-month gain since 2024.
US employers added more jobs than expected for a second month, and the unemployment rate held steady in April, indicating the labour market is holding up despite rising energy costs sparked by the war in Iran.
Nonfarm payrolls rose 115,000 last month after an even bigger surge in March, marking the strongest two-month increase since 2024, according to Bureau of Labour Statistics data out Friday. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3%. The report showcases a labour market that may be gaining momentum after near-zero job growth last year. It showed hiring advanced across a variety of sectors, and follows other data indicating layoff activity remains low.
The relative weakness of the Canadian labour market will discourage the Bank of Canada from tightening monetary policy too soon. To be sure, inflation remains a risk as higher energy costs become embedded in the price of a wide array of goods and services. The Bank will be reluctant to respond with rate hikes over the next few announcement dates.
Trade negotiations will accelerate in the coming months as the future of CUSMA is determined. It is hard to imagine the Bank of Canada tightening in the face of such a weak housing market. |