While the second straight acceleration in the headline number was expected, the pace of price gains may still surprise Bank of Canada policymakers, who cut interest rates for the seventh straight meeting. Donald Trump’s tariff threats hamper business and consumer spending. But assuming the federal sales tax break hadn’t been in place, Canadian inflation would have jumped even higher to 3% in February. This is at the upper bound of the bank’s target range, from 2.7% a month earlier. Canadian inflation has not been at or above 3% since the end of 2023.

Faster price growth was broad-based in February, the end of the goods and services tax (GST)/harmonized sales tax (HST) break through the month contributed notable upward pressure to prices for eligible products. Slower growth for gasoline prices (+5.1%) moderated the all-items CPI acceleration.

The CPI rose 1.1% m/m in February and 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis.  However, the increase exceeded the tax impact as seasonally-adjusted CPI excluding the tax impact was +0.4%. And, in case you want to pin it on food & energy, CPI excluding food, energy & taxes was +0.3%.

Gains were across the board, with the sectors impacted by the tax change seeing the most significant increase: recreation +3.4%, food +1.9%, clothing +1.6%, and alcohol +1.5% more to come next month, with the tax holiday only ending in mid-February. The headline inflation figures are subject to as much noise as we’ve seen in decades. They are poised to continue for at least another couple of months, making it very challenging to interpret the inflation data.

As a result, prices for food purchased from restaurants declined at a slower pace year over year in February (-1.4%) compared with January (-5.1%). Restaurant food prices contributed the most to the acceleration in the all-items CPI in February.

Similarly, on a yearly basis, alcoholic beverages purchased from stores declined 1.4% in February, following a 3.6% decline in January.

On a year-over-year basis, gasoline prices decelerated, with a 5.1% increase in February following an 8.6% gain in January. Prices rose less month over month in February 2025 compared with February 2024, when higher global crude oil prices pushed up gasoline prices, leading to slower year-over-year price growth in February 2025.

Month over month, gasoline prices rose 0.6% in February. This increase was primarily related to higher refining costs amid planned refinery maintenance across North America. This offset lower crude oil prices, mainly due to increased American supply and tariff threats, contributing to slowing global growth concerns.

Not surprisingly, the core inflation metrics were firm as well. CPI-Trim and Median both rose 0.3% m/m and 2.9% y/y. The 3- and 6-month annualized rates are all above 3% as well, pointing to ongoing stickiness. The breadth of inflation, which has been a focus for the Bank of Canada, also worsened with the share of items rising 3%+ increasing modestly. None of this is encouraging news for policymakers.

This report will reinforce the Bank of Canada’s cautious stance on easing to mitigate the impact of tariffs. Notably, the upcoming end of the carbon tax will cause inflation to drop sharply in April. However, March may see an increase in inflation as the effects of the tax holiday begin to reverse. There is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding inflation, which complicates the job of policymakers. We will see what April 2 brings regarding additional tariffs.

If the economic outlook did not worsen, the Bank of Canada might consider pausing after cutting rates at seven consecutive meetings. However, the Canadian economy will likely slow significantly in the coming months.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said last week the bank would “”roceed carefully””amid the tariff war. Economists are still awaiting more clarity on tariffs before firming up their expectations for the next rate decision on April 16, when policymakers will also update their forecasts. Right now, traders are betting that the BoC will hold rates steady in April, but a lot can and will happen before then.

According to data released Monday by the Canadian Real Estate Association, transactions fell 9.8% from January. Activity was at its lowest level since November 2023. Benchmark home prices declined 0.8%, and new listings plunged, more than reversing January’s gains. Housing continues to struggle despite the dramatic easing by the Bank of Canada, which took overnight rates down from 5% in June 2024 to 2.75% today, its lowest level since September 2022.

Were it not for the US announcement on January 20 that it would impose 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods, housing markets would be headed into a strong Spring season. While we believe that rates will fall substantially further, a strong housing recovery awaits further clarity on the economic outlook. We have revised down our growth estimates for the first and second quarters of this year, raising the prospects for a recession.

The trade war with the US has sharply raised uncertainty. Labour markets are tightening, stocks have sold off sharply, and interest rates are falling. Tariffs will also boost inflation, causing the central bank to ease cautiously.

“The moment tariffs were first announced on January 20, a gap opened between home sales recorded this year and last. This trend continued to widen throughout February, leading to a significant, but hardly surprising, drop in monthly activity,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “This is already reflected in renewed price softness, particularly in Ontario’s Greater Golden Horseshoe region.”

Declines were broad-based, with sales falling in about three-quarters of all local markets and in almost all large markets. The trend was most pronounced in the Greater Toronto Area and surrounding Great Golden Horseshoe regions.

With sales down amid a surge in new supply, the national sales-to-new listings ratio fell to 49.3% compared to readings in the mid-to-high 50s in the fourth quarter of last year. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 55%, with readings between 45% and 65% generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions.

At the end of January 2025, close to 136,000 properties were listed for sale on all Canadian MLS® Systems, up 12.7% from a year earlier but still below the long-term average of around 160,000 listings for that time of the year.

“While we continue to anticipate a more active spring for the housing sector, the threat of a trade war with our largest trading partner is a major dark cloud on the horizon,” said James Mabey, CREA Chair. “While uncertainty about the economy and jobs will no doubt keep some prospective buyers on the sidelines, a softer pricing environment alongside lower interest rates will be an opportunity for others.”

At the end of February 2025, 146,250 properties were listed for sale on all Canadian MLS® Systems, up 13.1% from a year earlier but still below the long-term average of around 174,000 listings for that time of the year.

“The uncertainty of the last few weeks seems to be causing some buyers to think twice about big financial decisions right now,” said James Mabey, CREA Chair. “A softer pricing environment and lower interest rates will be a buying opportunity for others.”

There were 4.2 months of inventory nationally at the end of January 2025, up from readings in the high threes in October, November, and December. The long-term average is five months of inventory. Based on one standard deviation above and below that long-term average, a seller’s market would be below 3.6 months and a buyer’s market above 6.5 months.

The National Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) declined by 0.8% from January to February 2025, marking the largest month-over-month decrease since December 2023.

The renewed price softening was most notable in Ontario’s Greater Golden Horseshoe region.

The non-seasonally adjusted National Composite MLS® HPI was down 1% compared to February 2024.

Before the tariff threats emerged, the housing market seemed poised for a strong rebound as the spring selling season approached.

Unfortunately, the situation has only deteriorated, particularly as President Trump has repeatedly suggested that Canada could become the 51st state, further angering Canadians. While the first-round effect of tariffs is higher prices as importers attempt to pass off the higher costs to consumers, second-round effects slow economic activity reflecting layoffs and business and household belt-tightening.

The Bank of Canada will no doubt come to the rescue slashing interest rates further. This is particularly important for Canada where interest-rate sensitivity is far higher than in the US.

The Wall Street Journal, typically considered a conservative publication, criticized Trump, labelling this as the “dumbest trade war in history.” The Journal stated, “Mr. Trump sometimes sounds as if the US shouldn’t import anything at all, that America can be a perfectly closed economy making everything at home. This is called autarky, and it isn’t the world we live in or one that we should want to live in, as Mr. Trump may soon find out.”

This misguided tariff policy will cause untold damage to the global economy, including the US. Americans will suffer the impact of higher prices and shortages of key products imported from Canada and Mexico. The various North American free trade agreements aimed to improve manufacturing efficiencies and meld the three economies to maximize productivity and the free flow of essential inputs into production. Canada is the number one supplier of steel and aluminum and there are no readily available substitutes for these crucial inputs. A plethora of products and construction activity use steel and aluminum. Aluminum is produced in Quebec where hydroelectricity is plentiful and cheap. US farmers depend on Canadian potash and auto parts, and Canada is the number one exporter of oil and gas to the US.

Consider the US auto industry, which operates as a North American entity due to the highly integrated supply chains across the three countries. In 2024, Canada supplied nearly 13% of US auto parts imports, while Mexico accounted for almost 42%. Industry experts note that a vehicle produced on the continent typically crosses borders multiple times as companies source components and add value most cost-effectively.

This integration benefits everyone involved. According to the Office of the US Trade Representative, the industry contributed more than $809 billion to the US economy in 2023, representing about 11.2% of total US manufacturing output and supporting 9.7 million direct and indirect US jobs. In 2022, the US exported $75.4 billion in vehicles and parts to Canada and Mexico. According to the American Automotive Policy Council, this figure rose 14% in 2023, reaching $86.2 billion.

Without this trade, American car makers would struggle to compete. Regional integration has become an industry-wide manufacturing strategy in Japan, Korea, and Europe. It leverages high-skilled and low-cost labour markets to source components, software, and assembly.

As a result, US industrial capacity in automobiles has grown alongside an increase in imported motor vehicles, engines, and parts. From 1995 to 2019, imports of these items rose by 169%, while US industrial capacity in the same categories increased by 71%. Thousands of well-paying auto jobs in states like Texas, Ohio, Illinois, and Michigan owe their competitiveness to this ecosystem, which relies heavily on suppliers in Mexico and Canada.

Tariffs will also cause mayhem in the cross-border trade of farm goods. In fiscal 2024, Mexican food exports comprised about 23% of US agricultural imports, while Canada supplied some 20%. Many top US growers have moved to Mexico because limits on legal immigration have made it hard to find workers in the US. Mexico now supplies 90% of avocados sold in the US.

Yesterday, the President’s tariff announcement led to an immediate sell-off in stock markets worldwide. Bonds, seen as a safer haven, rallied sharply, taking longer-term interest rates down sharply in anticipation of a meaningful slowdown in economic activity. The Canadian dollar sold off sharply, though it clawed back some of its losses overnight. WTI oil prices dropped 2% yesterday and continued to decline today.

Bottom Line

This is a lose-lose situation and President Trump underestimates the negative fallout of his actions at home and abroad. Retaliation will be swift. Americans will balk at the disruption of supply chains (think waiting for months for a new car) and the increase in the price of many products.

Legendary investor, Warren Buffet, called the tariffs an “act of war.”

Before the tariffs were imposed, we expected roughly 2% growth this year. Assuming the tariffs remain in place for a year, the Canadian economy will plunge into recession. We will likely see a few quarters of negative growth before growth gradually resumes.

Despite the inflation risk, the Bank of Canada will respond aggressively to minimize the meltdown in labour markets and the economy in general. When the Governing Council meets again on March 12, we expect another 25 bps cut in the overnight policy rate, bringing it down to 2.75%. Over the next year, we expect the Bank to continue to ease credit conditions, and a 2.0% overnight rate is likely.

The Canadian 5-year yield, a bellwether for setting fixed mortgage rates, has fallen to 2.51%, its lowest level in nearly three years. Lower interest rates are favorable for housing markets, although the inevitable rise in unemployment and drop in spending will mitigate this effect.